Strong Schools Need Steady Funding. Amendment 5 Trades Steady for Risky.
On August 4, Missourians vote on Amendment 5. It sounds simple — phase out the state income tax. But the ballot hides the trade: to replace that money, the legislature could raise and expand the sales tax, and change who gets to approve the increases. For public schools, that trade is everything.
THE ONE THING TO REMEMBER
Amendment 5 asks Missourians to give up a stable, balanced way of funding our schools in exchange for a promise — and to give up their own vote on future tax increases to do it.
WHAT SUPPORTERS SAY
Backers call it a tax cut that grows the economy, and note it phases out the income tax gradually, only as revenue allows. They promise it will be “revenue-neutral.” We take that seriously — here is what Missouri’s own record shows.
Problem 1 Steady vs. Risky: How schools get paid
Missouri pays for schools with a mix of income and sales taxes that don’t fall at the same time — like a balanced account instead of a single stock. Amendment 5 leans almost everything on sales taxes, the more volatile source. Income tax is about two-thirds of state revenue, and Missouri has no oil, gas, or tourism to cushion a bad year.
IT ALREADY HAPPENED — 2025–26 SCHOOL YEAR
Lottery, gaming, and cigarette-tax revenue came in about $138 million below projection. Schools absorbed a mid-year cut of roughly $245 per student — money districts had already budgeted and were spending. That is the small version of what Amendment 5 would make the whole system.
AND WHEN SPENDING STOPS
In the early weeks of COVID (spring 2020), consumer spending fell about 17% in two months. Sales-tax revenue craters fast when people stop buying — exactly the source Amendment 5 would make schools depend on.
Problem 2 The Promise Problem: “Revenue-neutral” is a forecast
“Revenue-neutral” is a prediction, not a guarantee — and Missouri just missed an almost identical one. If the state’s own forecasters can be this wrong on a smaller change, betting the school-funding base on a bigger one is not safe.
LAST YEAR’S CAPITAL-GAINS CUT
Projected to cost the state about $100 million. Actual cost: closer to $500 million — a five-times miss. Replacing the whole income tax is far larger: the state sales tax would have to rise by roughly 8.5 percentage points unless lawmakers start taxing things that aren’t taxed today.
IT’S BEEN TRIED NEXT DOOR
Kansas cut income taxes on the same promise, with some of the same advisers. The growth didn’t show, revenue collapsed, schools were cut — and lawmakers repealed it. Missouri’s version would be written into the constitution and could not be easily reversed.
Problem 3 Your Vote Is the Price: Who decides on taxes?
Today, the Hancock Amendment gives you a say: Missouri voters must approve major state tax increases. Amendment 5 sets that aside for five years and lets the legislature raise and expand sales taxes — without coming back to ask you.
WHAT COULD GET TAXED
In 2016, Missouri voters specifically banned new sales taxes on services — haircuts, home and auto repair, and the like. Amendment 5 overrides that vote. One “yes” would sign away your say on what gets taxed next.
Amendment 5 By The Numbers
~$245 per-student cut this year when consumption revenue fell short
$100M → $500M last year’s capital-gains forecast vs. reality
~2/3 of state revenue comes from the income tax
~8.5 pts sales-tax jump needed to replace it
What’s at Stake for Schools
A district can’t turn the buses around or unwind teacher contracts mid-year when revenue falls short — its costs are locked in. That is why schools need steady, predictable funding. Amendment 5 trades that steadiness for a promise, and asks voters to give up their say to make the trade. We’re here to make the trade visible, so you can look up your district’s funding, check the facts, and decide whether this is a bet worth making with Missouri’s schools.
WHAT YOU CAN DO BEFORE AUGUST 4
Look it up. See your own district’s funding and how much rides on the state then judge the risk for yourself. Share it. Send this to one neighbor who hasn’t made up their mind. Most people have never heard the trade explained. Ask about it. Ask candidates and local leaders where they stand on Amendment 5 and why.
Sources: Missouri DESE school-funding reports; Missouri Budget Project; Missouri Oversight Division fiscal notes; state consensus revenue estimates. Figures are approximate; some 2025–26 numbers are preliminary pending final enacted totals. Full sourcing in our evidence library.
Paid for by Across the Aisle for Missouri Public Schools, AAMPS PAC, Jacque A. Cowherd, Treasurer
